First the good news. The State of Minnesota started out the first quarter of the FY 2012-13 biennium with higher-than-expected revenue. From July through September, the state collected $59 million above estimates, up about two percent from earlier projections, according to the state’s October 2011 Economic Update. Corporate income tax, individual income tax and sales tax receipts all exceeded forecasted levels.
While revenue is up slightly, Minnesota’s cash reserves remain low. Still, state financial experts reported at a legislative hearing last week that they do not expect that it will be necessary to take any administrative actions or turn to short-term borrowing in order to cover our bills during the current fiscal year. (State leaders took out a line of credit in 2010, just in case.)
The national economy continues to be the problem. The October Update reiterated concerns raised earlier this summer:
While most economists expect the U.S. to avoid a recession, real GDP growth over the next six to nine months is expected to be very slow…Forecasters’ major concern is that the tepid growth rate now seen likely through at least mid-2012 leaves the expansion dependent on the absence of extraordinary events and the avoidance of policy errors both in the U.S. and in the Eurozone.
State economist Tom Stinson says Minnesota will likely face a new deficit for the current biennium, MPR reported. When Governor Dayton and the Legislature made FY 2012-13 budget decisions, the national economy was expected to grow at a somewhat respectable pace – 3.2 percent growth in GDP in 2011 and 2.9 percent in 2012. The latest GDP growth estimates have been cut by about half, to 1.7 percent for 2011 and 1.4 percent for 2012. The steep drop in economic growth means a decline in state revenues, which increases the likelihood that a deficit will open up within the current biennium.
Federal and state leaders need to steer a careful course. This subdued level of economic growth assumes Congress will extend the expiring employee payroll tax cut into 2012, a proposal that is part of President Obama’s jobs bill. Stinson said last week that if Congress fails to extend the payroll tax cut, it would further reduce GDP growth expectations by one percent in 2012, resulting in a virtually no-growth scenario nationally.
We’ll know whether the state will face a deficit in the current biennium – and the size – when Minnesota Management and Budget releases the November Forecast. And on January 24, the Minnesota Legislature will reconvene. Given the current fiscal instability, policymakers need to focus on supporting Minnesota families struggling in the slow economy, and investing in the future economic health of the state.