For a good analysis, check out Juan Cole. Also worth noting: local prof William Beeman offers an interesting take in MinnPost, but the article also warns:
Foreign journalists typically focus on Iran’s upper classes and connect with those who tweet, blog and frequent Facebook. But that is not by any means a cross section of the Iranian electorate. It leaves out Ahmadinejad’s base: the poor and the rural residents who are less connected with the world and less inclined to talk with strangers.
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