Solstice is here

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It is dark outside when the alarm goes off, not at all a time to wake up. The usual 8 hours and 41 minutes of daylight we can expect on a Winter Solstice is never enough to keep us going, even on a relatively warm and sometimes even bright year like this. The icy Winter of 2013 is just as dark as any other. The Solstice itself, that magic moment when the North Pole starts to wobble back towards the sun, comes on 21 December at exactly 17:11 UTC/GMT (11:11 CST). Continue Reading

New rules – new game? Finally going into effect, “Volcker Rule” could drastically change banking

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Tuesday is scheduled to be the day that everything changes. Not everything, really, but it’s the day that the “Volcker Rule” will finally go into effect. “Leave the capital markets to their own devices without any expectation of government protection and keep the existing safety net for the commercial banking system,” Volcker said in 2009. In practice, this means that commercial banking, with deposits backed by the FDIC, have to be separated from stock trading and similar activities. Continue Reading

The economy of people

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The economic teachings of Pope Francis are a hot topic. People feel a need to weigh in on what he said whether they understand it or not. But it’s the simple fact that so many don’t understand where this comes from that is probably the most important point in the public debate. Continue Reading

What should we expect this holiday shopping season?

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One week from now, the holiday shopping season fires up in a big way. Predictions for how good or bad it will be have been all over the place, ranging from a net drop in spending according to Morgan Stanley to a record-bursting rise if you believe accounting firm Deloitte. It’s been impossible to figure which was more likely, although Barataria staked a claim to the stronger end before anyone else. We’re starting to get some data in and it looks like the optimists were right. This might be a good year after all. Continue Reading

The year everything changes

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2017 is still over three years away, but we can already say a lot about it. We know that there will be a new President, although it’s not clear yet which party has the edge this far out. It’s likely that whoever is elected she (as it well could be) will try very hard to take the partisan edge off of Washington and get things done. There may even be a new Congress by then with a completely different configuration. But as big as the political changes are likely to be, the real change will be away from Washingtoon. Continue Reading

The immigration solution

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Barataria has noted before that there are three great forces weighing on the economy today: business cycles, globalization, and demographics (the retirement of the Baby Boom, already starting). Business cycles don’t last forever, and this particularly destructive one should end about the same time the heart of the Baby Boom starts to retire in 2018. The latter is a genuinely double-edged sword, providing opportunities for young people to fill the jobs that open as the burden of retirees on public assistance grows. There is still the potential for a great period of economic expansion in the 2020s if we can manage the downside effectively. Continue Reading

Minneapolis’ new generation

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Much has been said about the upheaval in the Republican Party. But there may be just as much change happening in the Democratic Party, at least if the Minneapolis City Council election this year is representative of any trends. The generational turnover in the Council has dropped the average age from 52 to 41, by my reckoning, and increased the non-white membership from 1 to 3 of 13 – all of whom are foreign-born. Continue Reading