MN-SEN: Franken, Coleman in statistical dead heat


by Eric Pusey, 5/27/08 • A new poll indicates that Al Franken is in a statistical dead heat with Norm Coleman for the MN-SEN seat.

Eric Pusey blogs at mnblue

The Rasmussen poll released today indicates Norm leads Al by 2 points, 47% – 45% with a MoE of 4%. After getting pummeled by the MN Republican Party, Norm and Norm’s minions, Al is now back to tied with Norm.

Coleman earns 91% support from Republican voters while Franken gets the vote from 76% of Democrats. Those figures are little changed from a month ago. However, Coleman’s lead among unaffiliated voters—down to nine percentage points—has been cut in half over the past month. Franken benefits from the fact that there are more Democrats than Republicans in Minnesota.

Franken also receives a boost from the top-of-the-ticket—Barack Obama enjoys a double-digit lead over John McCain. However, just 70% of Obama voters say they’ll vote for Franken. Eighty-four percent (84%) of McCain voters support the Republican incumbent.
(Rasmussen Reports)

Here’s my analysis:

First of all, once Al becomes the DFL nominee he will get more like 90+% of support from DFLers. Its not surprising that 30% of Obama supporters don’t support Al — they’re supporting Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer. I believe that this will start to change weekend after next at the DFL State Convention.

Secondly, turnout is going to play a huge role in deciding this race. There are simply more Democrats in this state than Republicans. President Bush has been a fabulous recruiter for the Democratic Party. More and more MN Republicans are switching to the DFL or identifying as independents.

When you consider that we could have over 80% turnout and you can understand why Norm is laying on the Norm-speakTM so thick. If we establish a record for turnout, Obama won’t just beat Grandpa McSame, he’ll thrash him in MN. As Rasmussen correctly note, the down-ticket benefits will be for Al.

Finally, Norm has only polled above 50% once — when the criticism of Al peaked. Even then he only pulled 51%. Any sitting Senator polling as low as Norm has been since last July, is vulnerable.