Tibetan scholar provides insights on Sino-Tibetan relations

The longstanding debate over the future of Tibet is approaching a critical point, Tibetan scholar Dr. Lobsang Sangay told a an enthusiastic audience Tuesday night at the Tibetan American Foundation of Minnesota in St. Paul. Between now and the Beijing Olympics in 2008, he said, advocates for a free Tibet may have their best opportunity to leverage some meaningful political change.

“China’s international image is very important to them,” he explained. “If you complain when they are delicate, the whole world will take notice. It’s better [to try to make changes] before the Olympics than during, when the focus is on sports.”

Sangay, a Research Fellow in the East Asian Legal Studies Program at Harvard Law School who in 2004 became the first Tibetan to graduate from Harvard Law School, is a leader of the Tibetan Youth Congress and has a regular program on Radio Free Asia. He came to St. Paul to discuss the current relationship between Tibet and China and where he foresees the conflict between the two countries heading in the next few years. Make no mistake, however, he speaks for himself.

“I am not part of a group,” he said, “I am a scholar who is analyzing things.”

Part of the analysis was explaining the recent history of the interplay between Tibet and China. For the past several years, the Tibetan Government in Exile has held regular meetings with the Chinese, working on their fundamental differences, issues and complaints, and confidence building.

At each meeting, Tibet and China have worked on what Sangay calls the Eight D’s: Determination of History, Definition of Autonomy, Demarcation of Tibet, Democracy of Communist System, Demography, Designation of His Holiness Dalai Lama, Dilemma of Hu Jintao and Devolution of Authority as Solution. By discussing the major issues that separate Tibet and China, Sangay hopes that the two will eventually be able to work towards a resolution.

“The eight D’s are the factors that will determine the outcome of a successful dialogue or not,” said Sangay.

One of the larger issues surrounding the future state of Tibet is the argument for or against its independence. Some of the arguments for a fully independent Tibet are that China will collapse, freedom will be restricted, economic and environmental disasters will arise, and corruption and poverty will abound. As it is now, 10 percent of China’s population owns 65 percent of the wealth. If China can’t even provide for its own country, how can they ensure Tibetans’ well-being?

Those in favor of an autonomous Tibet within China, such as the Dalai Lama, believe that Tibetans should use China’s power to their advantage. Their economy is bursting with a 9 percent annual growth rate, 250 million people have escaped poverty in the last 10 years and corruption has been reduced. Sangay, who considers himself a moderate, is aware that both the advocates for an independent versus autonomous Tibet have strong cases, which is why coming to an agreement has not been easy.

In the next few years, as China President Hu Jintao’s government undergoes several changes, the Tibetan community and its worldwide supporters will be waiting anxiously to see what China decides in regards to Tibet, Sangay said. He believes the next few years will be critical when the Committee of the Communist Party will decide whether to keep its nine-person system or go down to seven. Depending on who is elected and re-elected, the Tibet issue could either be dealt with or further pushed under the rug. Jintao will also have to consolidate the power among the party in order to accomplish things, and Sangay and others are interested to see whether the incoming leaders will be able to work alongside Jintao.

Sangay also believes that there is a strong connection between Sino-Tibetan relations and China’s relationship to Hong Kong and Taiwan. As Hong Kong’s Chief Executive changes in June 2007 and March 2008 brings the Taiwan Presidential elections, China will no doubt be affected. As China is affected, so will be the Tibet issue. Although Hong Kong and Taiwan are China’s closest neighbors, they have not always been on friendly terms. If Hong Kong and Taiwan can raise enough attention for themselves against the Chinese, the Tibetans may have room to follow suit.

In terms of an optimal time for positive change in Sino-Tibetan relations, Sangay looks at now until August 2008 when China will host the Olympic Games. Sangay feels that the future of Tibet lies within this span of time because of China’s change in leadership and the fact that China will be in the spotlight of the international community in preparation for the Olympics.

Other upcoming events that could affect the current debate over Tibet include the 2010 China Trade Fair when more than 100,000 business people will be in China. In the next few years, the TAR Party Secretary and TAR Tibetan Governor may also change, which could shake things up politically. “I’m not a psychic,” Sangay said, but he and his fellow scholars have spent a lot of time analyzing the facts and determining when the best times will be in the near future for the Tibet issue to be exposed to China and the world, giving it the attention it deserves and therefore coming to a resolution.

So, what can local Tibetans do to support their faltering country? Sangay thinks that Tibetans outside of Tibet need to make sure that they and their children stay educated about the situation in Tibet, as well as getting involved in local groups and organizations. As Tibetans migrate abroad, Sangay said he fears that the fervor with which many Tibetans have fought for their country will be diluted by American pop culture or the need to assimilate. Within China, he said, Tibetans need to become more self-sufficient by building their economy so that they don’t need to rely on China for help. If more Tibetans hired other Tibetans for work, their community would make money by and for themselves.

At the end of Sangay’s presentation, the crowd, many of them current or aspiring college students, engaged in a lengthy question-and-answer section and dialogue. Many Tibetans wondered if the issue of Tibet had become a lost cause. Sangay assured them that, with hard work, the situation of Tibet could someday be resolved. He encouraged the group to keep fighting, reaching out to others and educating people on Tibet.

“It’s very important to bridge the gap between Tibetans in and out of Tibet,” he said. “Tibetans need to mobilize themselves.”