Nails in the GOP coffin: Thoughts on the Iowa straw poll results
Bachmann wins, Pawlenty is out. What do learn from the Iowa straw poll? Whatever political moderation existed in the Republican Party, it rapidly disappearing as the GOP is being remade in the image of Palin and Bachmann.
Bachmann
The headline clearly is that Bachmann received nearly 29% of the vote. No surprise there. Bachmann has narrative that clearly appeals to a demographic of social conservatives and Tea Party members. For months I argued that mobilizing this vocal and active segment of the part would make Bachmann a major force in Iowa. With a divided field she had captured a large bloc of voters and she used this appeal along with her Iowa connection and strategy to do well in that state. Her challenges of course will now be to move beyond Iowa, reach out to others beyond her base in the party across the country. Moreover, as the field of GOP contenders winnows (Pawlenty exists) and expands, will she pick up supporters or lose them? Bachmann is definitely the headline of the party but challenges persist.
The GOP
Look beyond Bachmann. She received 28.6% of the vote, Paul 27.7%–together they accounted for 56% of the straw poll. These are two candidates who represent perhaps the most extreme agendas among the GOP field. Add to them Santorum who polled at 9.8% and one finds that nearly two-thirds of the straw poll went to what would appear to be non-mainstream candidates. Pawlenty, perhaps the most mainstream and establishment candidate who participated in the field, polled barely 14%. This is a party that has moved dramatically to the right of the one that picked Romney as the Iowa straw poll winner and McCain as their nominee in 08. The GOP had redefined itself. It is–as I have argued for months–no longer the party of Ronald Reagan. Sarah Palin successfully remade the party into one captured more firmly by the Tea party and owing much of its ideological allegiance to a blend of Barry Goldwater, Pat Robertson, and Ayn Rand. Paul and Bachmann represent different wings of this new party, but Bachmann is better poised to run within this new party because her rhetoric and narrative are less pedantic and more appealing that Paul’s cerebral musings about the gold standard.
Romney
Romney is in trouble. In theory the frontrunner, but he is the frontrunner in a GOP party that no longer exists. He is part of the old Reagan Republican Party (along with Pawlenty) now fading. As the Party has shifted look to see it be more difficult for him to maintain his lead. Bachmann represents the new center of the new Republican Party. She and Paul may not be the fringe, Romney and Pawlenty are.
Pawlenty
No surprise he is dropping out. He never had a chance. He never had a narrative and he was a Reagan Republican running in a Palin Party. He tried to fake being more conservative than he was, coming off as inauthentic and phony. He made Iowa make or break and he broke. Bachmann helped seal the deal and yet again unended her Minnesota rival. But Pawlenty was doomed even without her–he just lacked appeal as a candidate and he never created a rationale for he presidency. It also does not help to have a non-existent legacy as governor besides bankrupting it.
Perry
Perry changes the equation for Bachmann. They will fight out for many of the same supporters and the challenge will be to see what happens. Perry is Bachmann but with executive experience. But Perry’s support demonstrates again how far to the right the GOP has moved.
But what does it all mean?
Commentators state the challenge is for Bachmann to capture swing or centrist voters within the party. She may not need to do this. First, her bloc approach may be enough to help her for a long time. Second, the moderate GOP voters may be leaving, going the route of while males who abandoned the Democratic Party in the 1970s and 80s. If the Reagan Revolution redefined the GOP and Democratic Party membership, then the Palin-Bachmann redefinition will do the same. Some will leave the Party, perhaps leaving it a much more conservative one that even before. Within a party of vanishing moderates, Bachmann can win.
The Twin Cities Daily Planet is an edited news source produced by professional journalists working in collaboration with citizen journalists from the local community. We publish original reported news articles, articles republished from media partners, and some content (Free Speech Zone articles, reader-submitted blog entries, comments) that is moderated but not edited. Click here for a complete description of our editorial policies. Support people-powered non-profit journalism! Volunteer, contribute news, or become a member to keep the Daily Planet in orbit. |
David Schultz is a professor in the School of Business at Hamline University.
We're people-powered journalism! Click on story links (below) to see more story information, and then email editor@tcdailyplanet.net if you want to report.
• 
Comments
biased article
Obviously David Shutlz does not know or care what our USA Constitution says. Ron Paul is the most constitutional candidate and therefore, should be president.
Change is Scary
That is why Ron Paul doesn't get the time of day & when he is mentioned it is to make him out to be some lunatic with policies that will never work. He will bring about real change... change back to the way this country is supposed to be & that scares people because they don't want personal responsibility; they want to blame people & get things for free. They don't want true freedom; they want to be coddled. The majority of Americans remind me of the "tough" guy that only wants to fight when his friends are there to "hold him back".
I will leave it at that, less this turn into a 1,776 page rant.
Au Contraire
Because the media has gone further and further to the left it may seem that someone in the TEA Party is extreme. What you don't realize is the media is what the country sees as entertainment. They don't live their lives in its fashion.
There is nothing extreme about wanting the government to stop spending more than it takes in.
We see the failures of the welfare state in England and Greece. Not only economic failure but a moral one as well. They have generations that do not work, get a government check (one that keeps them in poverty I might add) and resent any that gain success.
That resentment is fueled by liberal politicians that promise more government funds and point their fingers at those who say we can't afford it. Tax the rich is the clarion call for the left along with they hate you because of your race.
All these sentiments come from the negative - drain all the good will from society, create chaos and downgrade a society.
Bachmann and Perry at least have a positive message about how great America is - all we see on the Dems side is NEGATIVE.
"Whatever political
"Whatever political moderation existed in the Republican Party...." Really?
As an American and one-time Democrat working in Europe, all I can say is that American parties at this point shouldn't have any more "moderation." Given the government debt crises washing over whole societies, and given the massive new debt just voted on by both parties in the US Congress, I think "moderation" -- think of the adage, 'moderation in all things' -- has been long absent both the Republicans and Democrats.
A recent LA Times article bemoaned the current adminstration's lack of an economic team, after Romer, Summers, Volker, Goolsbee and others have stepped down. Need one revisit Romer's recent "we're darn ****ed" remark? Why would such a team step down if ecnomic moderation were present?
The assertion of "moderation" is laughable, because there has been no moderation of government debt growing by leaps and bounds. Rather this is fiscal insanity. When the European Left can see this, there is something severely wrong with an American Left which refuses.
This comment remains anonymous, but I am a PhD from a major US university, and find the "moderation" assertion by an American professor innumerate, at best. There has been no fiscal moderation from Republicans or Democrats. There has been financial impracticality of the highest order, with a post office ready to declare massive layoffs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac essentially insolvent, and while three wars still are being conducted by the administration.
Rather than bemoan a loss of "moderation" in the Rpeublican Party, it is past time to consider the necessary and coming "moderation" in the fundamental way society and government are financed. Else the crises in Europe are not on America's doorstep, but the proverbial 800-pound gorilla in the room which everyone hopes to ignore.
It would be informative to learn what Professor Schulz believes is the answer to 15 trillion dollars of US debt in a world of impractical governments which cannot pay their bills. In many south European nations, the new word is austerity. This is real moderation, enforced by insane fiscal policies. "Moderation" absent in the Republican Party? I'd say moderation absent in both parties, in almost all candidates, in major cities, counties and states across our fine nation. Moderation in all things now WILL become moderating the size, scope and expense of government itself. For this the most radical Republican is barely a moderate at all, and Profssor Schulz is no businessman whatsoever.
Troubling. Ron Paul represents the thinking branch of the GOP
Ron Paul is the future of the GOP I'm fighting for. It's time to put an end to neo-con insanity. Imperialism is not a viable strategy for a modern country that wants peace nor is it anywhere close to moral! Ron Paul wants us out of all the wars(This is fiscal conservatism!). If elected Paul would get the USA out unlike Obama's empty promises. We've saw 8 years of Neo-con. It just doesn't work. Paleoconservatism is the only rational conservatism. Bachmann is a good person I'm sure but just doesn't seem presidential. And frankly is unelectable vs Obama. Romney is the only contender with a chance of beating Obama if Paul can't rally support(and lots of cash)
God help us if Trump hops in and Ross Perot's us.
Paul 27.7% and this article
Paul 27.7% and this article talks more about Romney and Pawlenty. As a younger conservative myself the media will soon realize that we are shifting toward a Ron Paul like republican. Id like to see the man who obtained as much of percent of the votes as the woman who doesnt know which city in Iowa she is from, get more than well he had less than1% less and on to the other guys.
ROMNEY WILL REMAIN THE LEADER (take that to the bank)
the winner of the straw poll in iowa will not get the nomination. The leaders nationwide will be ROMNEY AND PERRY. THEY ARE THE FRONT RUNNERS FOR THE RIGHT AND LEFT WING OF THE PARTY. THE LAGGARDS WILL FINALLY LOSE GROUND IN THE END. WE WILL FIND A GOOD JOB FOR BACHMANN IN THE ADMINISTRATION IF HER HEADACHES DON'T GET THE BEST OF HER.
It seems narrow minded for
It seems narrow minded for this article to ignore Ron Paul. He gets the recognition anyway even if the media ignors him.
Ron Paul
Clearly, there is a wide-spread effort by main-stream media to ingnore Ron Paul. Shows just how far the Fed & it's banker/media pals spread. Un-biased reporting, my ass.
Dr. Ron Paul fished second by
Dr. Ron Paul fished second by 152 votes and his campaign is surging. Why doesn't the media give him equal coverage? Ron Paul is America's leading voice for limited, constitutional government, low taxes, free markets, honest money, and a pro-America foreign policy. Help Restore America Now with a common-sense, Constitutional government. Support Ron Paul for President. Principled Leadership with a record to prove it.
Post new comment