Consultant analysis narrows Southwest Light Rail options

Cost estimates unveiled Monday for a proposed light rail line between Minneapolis and the southwest Metro give an edge to a more northerly route between Cedar Lake and Lake of the Isles. The projections for ridership and construction and operation costs have at least one public official saying the so-called 3A alignment option will be the ultimate pick by the panel formed to recommend the preferred route.

“The numbers speak for themselves,” said Hennepin County Commissioner Gail Dorfman who heads the advisory committee made up of representatives from Minneapolis, suburban communities, Hennepin County and transit officials.

The analysis by consultants, HDR Engineering, is the first detailed assessment of the possible costs and benefits for the project since discussions for the southwest line first began more than 20 years ago. The estimates show the Cedar-Isles-Kenilworth option would cost some $500-million dollars less than another popular proposal to bring the light rail through Minneapolis’ Uptown area and along the Midtown Greenway.

The Meetings Tuesday, August 11 6:30 to 8:00 PM Station Area Planning Presentation at 7:00 PM Hopkins City Hall 1010 1st Street S. Hopkins, MN 55343 Thursday, August 13 11:30 AM to 1:00 PM Downtown Minneapolis Library 300 Nicollet Mall Minneapolis, MN 55401 Thursday, August 13 6:30 to 8:00 PM Station Area Planning Presentation at 7:00 PM Marriott Southwest Hotel in Minnetonka 5801 Opus Parkway Minnetonka, MN 55343 Tuesday, August 18 6:30 to 8:00 PM Station Area Planning Presentation at 7:00 PM St. Louis Park City Hall 5005 Minnetonka Blvd. St. Louis Park, MN 55416 Wednesday, August 19 6:30 to 8:00 PM Station Area Planning Presentation at 7:00 PM Eden Prairie City Hall 8080 Mitchell Road Eden Prairie, MN 55344 Thursday, September 17 6:30 PM Southwest Policy Advisory Committee Public Hearing Eisenhower Community Center 1001 Highway 7 Hopkins, MN 55305 The Routes For a zoomable map, go to http://www.southwesttransitway.org/possible-routes.html

“That’s nowhere even close to viable,” Dorfman said. “A $500-million to $600-million difference is huge.” The construction costs as they relate to projected ridership are important for securing federal transportation funds, which are critical for the project.

The breakdown shows the Kenilworth line serving about 30,000 riders a day, which is comparable to the actual numbers of riders on the Hiawatha Light Rail line—the only operating light rail line in the state. Construction cost would be between $1.1 billion and $1.25 billion, with annual operating costs estimated to be as much as $25 million. That’s compared to the Greenway proposal, which would cost between $1.6 billion and $1.8 billion and run as much as $29 million a year to operate. The Midtown line would also serve 30,000 commuters a day according to the estimates.

All those numbers go into what’s known as the Cost Effectiveness Index that indicates the total cost per rider. This is one of the key figures officials look at when determining eligibility for federal funds. Typically, projects with a per-rider index of more than $29 are out of range. According to the equation, the per-rider cost for the Kennilworth line would between $28 and $31. The Midtown line would run upwards of $44 per rider.

Katie Walker, the project manager for Hennepin County, maintained no decision has been made yet to indicate one route over another. “The (Midtown Greenway option) is not ruled out on this measure alone,” she said. But she concedes a cost index number well into the 40s makes it considerably less competitive in the nationwide contest for funds from the Federal Transit Administration. “It’s hard to make the math work out on that one.”

Some of the potential wild cards in the process include opposition from two Minneapolis city council members—Ralph Remington and Robert Lilligren—who sit on the Policy Advisory Committee. Each supports a different alignment. Also, some residents in the Kenwood neighborhood area of Minneapolis have expressed opposition to the Kenilworth route because it would turn what is now a quiet bike path into a busy commuter railway.

LRT officials will start a series of open houses Tuesday in Hopkins to hear from residents, public officials and others leading up to a scheduled recommendation on the preferred route on October 14th. A separate panel of technical consultants will present their preferred alternative before then, with a public hearing scheduled on September 17th.